Ghana less exposed to global oil disruptions — Fitch

Ghana’s energy security is expected to remain stable despite global oil market tensions, supported by the resumption of operations at the Tema Oil Refinery. This development is seen as a major boost to the country’s energy independence and resilience against external shocks. A report by Fitch Solutions, an international rating agency, said the development would reduce the economy’s exposure to external supply disruptions, particularly in periods of global uncertainty.

The report said recent volatility in global energy prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and strained relations among major oil producers, had raised concerns for import-dependent economies. These conditions have historically made countries reliant on fuel imports vulnerable to price shocks and supply instability.

However, it said Ghana was relatively insulated following the restart of operations at the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) in December 2025, after years of shutdown due to debt and maintenance challenges. The reopening marks a significant turnaround for the refinery, which had long struggled with operational inefficiencies and financial constraints.

The report said the resumption restored domestic refining capacity and reversed Ghana’s recent position as a net oil importer. This shift is expected to improve trade dynamics and reduce reliance on costly imports.

“With TOR operational, Ghana is projected to be broadly oil-trade neutral or a modest net exporter in 2026, limiting the direct impact of global price spikes on the country’s trade balance,” it said. This projection signals a positive outlook for Ghana’s external sector performance.

It noted that the development was significant amid persistent risks of supply disruptions, including possible escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran, which could affect shipping routes and crude availability. Such risks have continued to shape global energy markets and influence pricing trends.

Data from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana indicated that Ghana’s hydrocarbons trade position was nearing balance, suggesting that higher crude prices would not necessarily worsen the current account. This reflects improved economic management and strategic positioning in the energy sector.

Under favourable conditions, it said higher prices could boost export receipts from crude oil, providing additional fiscal space for the government.

Consequently, the report projected Ghana’s current account surplus at about 4.2 per cent of GDP in 2026, above the historical average deficit recorded between 2010 and 2024. This marks a significant improvement compared to past trends of persistent deficits.

It said the surplus would support macroeconomic stability and ease pressure on the local currency, helping to stabilise inflation and strengthen investor confidence.

The report said strong export earnings and prudent external financing had strengthened foreign exchange reserves, which stood at about US$14.4 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2026, equivalent to approximately six months of import cover. This level of reserves is considered adequate by international standards.

It said the reserve buffers provided adequate capacity for the Bank of Ghana to intervene in the foreign exchange market in the event of external shocks, including those from global energy markets. This capacity is crucial in maintaining currency stability and cushioning the economy against sudden external pressures.