Cocoa growth eases to 3.8% after spectacular recovery in 2025

Ghana's cocoa sector remained on a growth trajectory during the first quarter of 2026, but the pace of expansion slowed considerably, signalling that the industry's strong recovery from last year's production crisis may be losing momentum.

According to the latest Provisional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates released by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), cocoa production expanded by 3.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, a significant decline from the robust 23.1% growth recorded during the same period in 2025.

The latest figures suggest that while the cocoa industry continues to recover, the rapid rebound experienced throughout much of 2025 has eased into a more moderate phase.

The slowdown in production growth also reduced cocoa's overall contribution to Ghana's economic expansion.

Data from the Ghana Statistical Service showed that cocoa contributed just 0.9 percentage points to overall GDP growth during the first quarter of 2026, compared with 5.0 percentage points in the corresponding period of 2025.

Despite the slower growth, cocoa's share of the economy increased slightly to 1.9% of GDP, up from 1.4% a year earlier, reflecting the crop's continued importance to Ghana's economy.

The latest performance follows a remarkable turnaround in 2025 after Ghana's cocoa industry endured one of its most difficult periods in recent history.

Throughout 2024, cocoa production contracted for four consecutive quarters, recording declines of:

• 27.1% in the first quarter
• 21.4% in the second quarter
• 29.9% in the third quarter
• 12.8% in the fourth quarter

The sector rebounded strongly in 2025, with output growing:

• 23.1% in the first quarter
• 14.2% in the second quarter
• 28.1% in the third quarter
• 3.0% in the fourth quarter

Growth has now edged up slightly to 3.8% in the first quarter of 2026, indicating that the extraordinary recovery phase has largely given way to more stable, albeit slower, expansion.

The moderation in cocoa production weighed on the broader agriculture sector.

According to the GDP report, agriculture expanded by 4.0% in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 6.6% during the same period last year.

Crop production as a whole recorded growth of 4.7%, down from 6.7% a year earlier.

However, stronger performance in the forestry sector helped cushion the impact of a significant contraction in fishing, allowing agriculture to remain one of the country's key economic drivers.

Overall, agriculture accounted for 21.4% of Ghana's GDP during the quarter and contributed 13.5% of total economic growth.

The latest figures have renewed questions about the long-term sustainability of Ghana's cocoa recovery.

Although production remains in positive territory, the sharp decline in growth rates suggests the sector is no longer delivering the exceptional gains that boosted economic performance throughout much of 2025.

Industry analysts say maintaining productivity will require continued investment in disease control, rehabilitation of ageing farms, improved access to inputs, climate resilience measures and stronger support for cocoa farmers.

Despite slower production growth, developments on the international market could provide a welcome boost for Ghana's cocoa sector.

Global cocoa prices have rebounded in recent weeks, with cocoa futures climbing back to nearly US$5,000 per tonne after falling below US$4,000 per tonne earlier this year.

Higher international prices could improve export earnings and strengthen farmer incomes, although the extent of the benefit will depend on production volumes and market conditions in the months ahead.

With cocoa remaining one of Ghana's leading export commodities and a major source of foreign exchange, policymakers and industry stakeholders will be closely monitoring production trends to determine whether the sector can sustain its recovery while capitalising on favourable global prices.