Myanmar’s coup leader who set off a brutal civil war becomes president

Just seven days after he made the fateful decision to launch his coup against the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi on February 1, 2021, General Min Aung Hlaing made a promise to hold elections and return the country to civilian rule within a year. It has taken him five years to fulfil that pledge, a delay that has significantly reshaped Myanmar’s political and social landscape.

Today, the newly elected parliament has chosen him to be the next president. Min Aung Hlaing has already stepped down as armed forces commander, as required by the constitution before assuming the presidency. However, despite the formal transition, analysts and observers argue that this marks civilian rule in name only, with real power still firmly in military hands.

The parliament, convening for the first time since the coup, is dominated by loyalists of the military leadership. With the armed forces constitutionally guaranteed one quarter of the seats, and the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) winning nearly 80% of the remaining seats in an election widely seen as heavily tilted in its favour, the outcome appeared predetermined. Many critics have described the process as less of a democratic election and more of a political coronation.

Military influence is also expected to dominate the new government. Min Aung Hlaing has ensured that a close ally, Ye Win Oo, a hardliner with a reputation for brutality, replaces him as head of the armed forces. In addition, he has established a powerful consultative council that will exercise overarching authority over both civilian and military affairs, effectively consolidating his control even after removing his uniform.

For many young activists, hope for democratic change has faded. One such activist, Kyaw Win (not his real name), recounted his ordeal after being arrested in 2022 for participating in a protest against the coup. He described severe torture during detention before being imprisoned and only recently released. Despite his continued commitment to what activists call “the revolution,” he now plans to leave Myanmar in search of opportunities abroad, reflecting a growing sense of disillusionment among the youth.

The five years since the coup have been catastrophic for Myanmar. Min Aung Hlaing appears to have underestimated the scale of public anger triggered by his seizure of power, which came just as parliament was preparing to confirm another term for Aung San Suu Kyi and her party following a landslide victory in the 2020 elections.

His decision to use lethal force against widespread protests ignited a civil war that has killed thousands, displaced millions, and severely damaged the economy. Armed resistance groups have taken control of large parts of the country, while the military has responded with airstrikes and attacks on opposition-held areas, destroying homes, schools, and hospitals.

This strategy reflects a long-standing military doctrine in Myanmar known as “the four cuts,” aimed at cutting off support for insurgents by targeting civilian populations. With backing from countries like China and Russia, the military has managed to regain some territory in recent years, but the conflict remains deeply entrenched.

At a recent military parade in Nay Pyi Taw, Min Aung Hlaing showed no sign of regret for the consequences of his actions. Instead, he reiterated familiar justifications for military involvement in politics, claiming the armed forces have a constitutional mandate to engage in governance and accusing opposition groups of being “terrorist factions” supported by foreign interests.

Analysts warn that little is likely to change under his presidency. According to conflict experts, the military’s strategy is expected to continue, with ongoing efforts to reclaim territory from resistance groups, who still control around 90 towns. This suggests continued air and drone strikes, as well as scorched-earth tactics in contested regions.

The opposition National Unity Government (NUG), which represents the ousted civilian administration and operates from resistance-held areas near the Thai border, has rejected the legitimacy of the new government and vowed to continue fighting for a federal democratic system.

Spokesman Nay Phone Latt stated that the struggle would persist unless the military agrees to fundamental reforms. “This is not the time to compromise,” he said, warning that abandoning the movement would only worsen the country’s future.

The economic toll of the crisis has been severe. The United Nations estimates that more than 16 million people now require life-saving assistance, while nearly four million have been displaced. Inflation has surged, eroding living standards and pushing many into poverty.

Fuel shortages, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have further strained the economy. Myanmar relies on imports for about 90% of its fuel, and restrictions from neighbouring countries have led to rationing and rising prices. Businesses, already struggling with limited electricity supply, are increasingly dependent on costly generators.

For ordinary citizens, the situation has become dire. Workers like Tin Oo, a motorbike taxi driver in Yangon, say it has become nearly impossible to make ends meet, with incomes no longer sufficient to cover basic needs such as rent and food.

Amid the ongoing crisis, veteran activist Mya Aye has called for dialogue and compromise as the only viable path forward. He has launched a new council aimed at bringing together stakeholders willing to seek a negotiated solution, including the release of political prisoners.

Mya Aye believes that the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, now 80, could play a crucial role in facilitating dialogue and finding common ground. There are reports that her release may be considered this year, particularly now that Min Aung Hlaing has secured the presidency.

However, prospects for peace remain uncertain. Myanmar continues to face a prolonged and complex crisis, with deep divisions between the military and its opponents. For now, any path toward reconciliation appears narrow, and there is little indication that the country’s military leadership is ready to pursue it.