Iran–US conflict pushes fertilizer prices higher, raising food security risks in 2026

Iran–US Tensions Push Fertilizer Prices Higher, Threatening Agriculture and Food Security in Ghana

Rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States are beginning to ripple through global commodity markets, with fertilizer prices emerging as a critical pressure point for agriculture in Africa, particularly Ghana. Disruptions in energy and shipping routes in the Middle East are tightening supply chains for essential farm inputs, raising concerns about production costs and food security in 2026.

At the center of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor through which a significant portion of the world’s oil, gas, and fertilizer exports pass. Industry data shows that nearly half of global urea exports and about 30 percent of ammonia supplies originate from the Persian Gulf region. Any instability in this corridor directly affects global fertilizer availability and pricing.

Since the escalation of tensions, global fertilizer prices have surged sharply, with estimates suggesting increases of between 9 percent and 31 percent compared to 2025 levels. The rise is driven not only by supply constraints but also by higher energy costs, as natural gas is a critical input in nitrogen-based fertilizer production.

For African economies, the impact is particularly severe due to heavy dependence on imports. Sub-Saharan Africa imports over 80 percent of its fertilizer needs, making the region highly vulnerable to global price shocks, according to Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data. Countries such as Ghana, which rely on imported urea and other nitrogen-based inputs, are directly exposed to these external disruptions.

Agricultural analysts warn that higher fertilizer prices could reduce application rates among farmers, ultimately lowering crop yields. This scenario poses a direct risk to food supply levels and could intensify inflationary pressures in the food market. Ghana has already experienced food price volatility in recent years, driven by climate shocks, currency depreciation, and global supply chain disruptions.

The situation mirrors the global impact of the Russia-Ukraine War, which disrupted grain and fertilizer markets, pushing prices to record highs and exposing vulnerabilities in import-dependent economies. The current Iran–US tensions threaten to replicate similar dynamics, especially in fertilizer markets closely tied to energy flows.

Beyond price increases, physical supply constraints are also a concern. Temporary shutdowns of production facilities in the Gulf due to energy disruptions have further tightened availability. For countries without domestic fertilizer manufacturing capacity, including Ghana, this raises the risk of delayed shipments and shortages during critical planting seasons.

Higher input costs could discourage planting or reduce farm investments, leading to lower agricultural output. This, in turn, may increase food prices, weaken household purchasing power, and elevate reliance on food imports at a time when global prices remain high.

Experts argue that the situation underscores the urgency for structural reforms in Ghana’s agricultural sector. Key measures include diversifying fertilizer sources, investing in local blending and production capacity, and promoting sustainable farming practices that reduce reliance on imported inputs.

Alternative approaches such as organic fertilization, crop rotation, and soil management techniques that enhance natural nitrogen fixation are also gaining attention. While these solutions require time, training, and technical support to scale, they offer a pathway to reduce exposure to volatile global input markets.

Ultimately, the Iran–US conflict highlights how geopolitical risks translate into economic realities for developing countries. For Ghana, the challenge in 2026 will be balancing short-term interventions to support farmers with long-term strategies to create a resilient and self-sufficient agricultural system.