Asiedu Nketia holds lead in NDC race but Ato Forson closing gap fast – Poll

The race to lead the National Democratic Congress (NDC) into the next general elections is intensifying, with party chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia maintaining an early lead but facing growing competition from Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson, according to a new tracking poll.

The survey, conducted by Global Info Analytics between March 31 and April 9, sampled nearly 10,400 NDC delegates across all 16 regions through telephone interviews. It is the first major public measurement of delegate sentiment since the succession race following John Dramani Mahama began to take shape.

The poll places Asiedu Nketia in the lead with 29% support among delegates, while Ato Forson has surged to 19%, significantly narrowing what had been a commanding lead just a week earlier.

In the initial poll round, Nketia led with 28% compared to Forson’s 12%, representing a 16-point gap. However, that margin has now shrunk to 10 points, largely due to undecided voters shifting toward the Finance Minister.

Other contenders include:

• Haruna Iddrisu — 11%
• Julius Debrah — 8%
• Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang — 8%
• Others — 1%
• Undecided — 24%

Pollsters noted that nearly all major candidates recorded gains except Asiedu Nketia, despite his ongoing nationwide “thank you” tour.

A key highlight of the poll is the rapid rise of Ato Forson, who has yet to officially declare his candidacy. Analysts describe his 19% support as a strong indicator of grassroots appeal and growing momentum within the party.

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Nketia leads Forson by 37% to 32%, a narrow five-point margin compared to wider leads over other candidates.

The poll also reveals important regional trends shaping the contest. In the Northern Region, Haruna Iddrisu dominates with 35% support, leveraging his strong local base, while Nketia trails at 26%.

However, in key swing regions—Greater Accra, Central, Eastern, and Western—Nketia regains ground, polling at 28%, level with Forson, suggesting a highly competitive battleground among undecided delegates.

With 24% of delegates still undecided, the race remains fluid and open. Analysts believe this bloc could ultimately determine the outcome of the contest as candidates intensify outreach efforts.

Despite maintaining his lead, Nketia’s marginal one-point increase suggests that his campaign has yet to significantly convert undecided voters into firm supporters.

The poll also sheds light on what matters most to NDC delegates:

• 74% prioritize performance and track record
• 53% seek a visionary leader
• 35% value government experience
• Only 8% consider youth important
• Just 1% prioritize gender

These findings indicate a strong preference for competence and leadership ability over demographic considerations.

While Johnson Asiedu Nketia remains the frontrunner, the rapid rise of Cassiel Ato Forson has significantly reshaped the dynamics of the race, setting the stage for a highly competitive contest within the NDC.