Ivory Coast sees strong exports of cocoa main crop as El Nino looms over output

Ivory Coast has slowed forward sales of cocoa for the 2026/27 season amid growing concerns that a potential El Niño weather pattern could negatively impact production across West Africa, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The world's largest cocoa producer has already sold approximately one million metric tonnes of cocoa through export contracts for the upcoming main crop season. However, authorities are now taking a more cautious approach as weather risks threaten future output.

Sources told Reuters that the Abidjan-based Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) has reduced the pace of sales while also increasing its export premium from zero to at least £100 per tonne above futures market prices.

The move reflects growing confidence in demand for cocoa as well as concerns that global supplies could tighten further when the new season begins on September 1.

"We have already sold between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes for next season, but we preferred to slow down and be cautious. We are selling less and less," one CCC source disclosed.

Industry insiders estimate that forward sales may already have reached between 1.1 million and 1.2 million tonnes, underscoring the strong appetite among international buyers despite elevated prices.

"The market is allowing them to be a bit more aggressive. They don't need to lower the premium to get contracts in the book," a senior industry trader said.

The CCC's cautious stance is largely driven by fears that El Niño could trigger drought conditions across major cocoa-producing countries, including Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria.

Weather experts have warned that the climate phenomenon could disrupt rainfall patterns during critical stages of cocoa development, potentially reducing yields and tightening global supplies.

According to sources within the CCC, unusually hot conditions experienced between January and May have already raised concerns about the health of cocoa farms.

"In truth, we are observing a certain fragility in the development of the mid-crop and therefore in the next main crop. It was very hot between January and May, and the rains of the past few weeks cannot make up for everything," a CCC source explained.

The source added that if El Niño develops as forecast during June and July, cocoa production could face additional pressure.

Not all market participants agree with the CCC's cautious outlook.

Several exporters interviewed by Reuters argued that El Niño is unlikely to significantly affect cocoa output next season and believe the industry should take advantage of strong market demand.

Others, however, support the council's conservative approach, citing uncertainty around weather conditions and the broader challenges facing cocoa production.

Many industry stakeholders believe the more pressing threat lies in the deteriorating condition of cocoa farms across the region.

Ageing plantations, widespread disease outbreaks and limited access to fertilisers continue to affect productivity in several cocoa-growing areas.

"I don't see El Niño as a threat to production. The real concern is the lack of fertilisers and treatments. It's a shame the CCC is refusing to sell when there's good demand," the head of an Abidjan-based export company said.

The cocoa sector is also grappling with rising fertiliser costs, which could further impact production in the coming season.

Industry observers say fertiliser prices have surged following disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran, which has affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global fertiliser trade.

Higher input costs could limit farmers' ability to maintain plantations and improve yields, adding another layer of uncertainty to cocoa production forecasts across West Africa.

With global demand for cocoa remaining strong and weather risks looming, market participants will be closely monitoring developments in Ivory Coast and other major producing countries in the months ahead.